2019 election : Nigeria at a crossroad – OrientDailyNews

By Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo

For over a decade, the drumbeat of Africa rising has been punc­tuated by the piano chords of Africa sliding back into its usual habits of poor gov­ernance, shrinking politi­cal space, and corruption. No country manifests these mood swings like the West African nation of Nigeria.

Despite recent econom­ic and democratic gains, the World Bank reported that more people currently live in ex­treme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa than in 1981. Most of these extremely poor Africans live in Nigeria. In February, World Poverty Clock used data from the International Mone­tary Fund, World Bank, United Nations and others to estimate that Nigeria has finally over­taken India as the country with the most people who live in extreme poverty. The World Bank estimates that there are 82 million people in Nigeria who live in extreme poverty, which is 42.4% of Nigeria’s 180 million people. According to the World Bank, extreme pov­erty is defined as people who live on less than $1.90 a day.

Besides poverty, or perhaps as a result of it, there are more failing states in Africa today than there were two decades ago. Africa is today a conti­nent where radical Islamic insurgency is spreading from Boko Haram in the Chad Basin of West Africa to al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb and down to al Shabaab in East Africa.

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In a 2017 Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine’s Fragile States Index, Nigeria was ranked 13. Nigeria shared the top 15 spots with countries like Yemen, South Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan, and Somalia. In­ternal Displacement Monitoring Center estimated that as of De­cember 2017, there were 1.9 mil­lion internally displaced people in Nigeria. The conflict between Fulani-Herdsmen and farmers across Nigeria’s middle belt region created a new batch of 200,000 displaced citizens in the last three months alone. Wide­spread corruption has continued unabated. In February, Transpar­ency International reported that corruption had worsened in Ni­geria, placing Nigeria at 148 out of 180 on the list of most corrupt countries in the world.

Nigeria’s socio-political sit­uation was compounded by political unrest in the form of Boko Haram insurgency in the North East, Niger Delta militancy in the South-South and resurgence of secession­ist movements in the South East and other regions in the South. While the Boko Haram insurgency placed Nigeria on the list of failing states, the militancy in the Niger Delta once disrupted oil produc­tion, which is the lifeline of the country. Crude oil sells account for 80% of Nigeria’s external earnings. Nigeria’s meager economic growth, es­timated to be 0.8 in 2018 by the IMF, is not keeping pace with Nigeria’s population growth. By 2050, Nigeria’s population, currently at 180 million, is ex­pected to reach 400 million, making it the third most pop­ulous country in the world. If the world has any chance of meeting the UN Sustainable Development goal of eradicat­ing extreme poverty by 2030, Nigeria must do more to diver­sify its economy and advance its political structure to create the favorable environment for those millions of young people to thrive.

In Nigeria, a new election for president will take place in less than ten months. The incumbent president, 75-year-old Muhammadu Buhari is widely expected to run even though he has not made it of­ficial. He is also under intense pressure at home and abroad to drop out of the race and leave the stage for a young­er leader who has the stami­na and modern worldview to manage the affairs of a diverse country like Nigeria.

Despite a spreading sense of insecurity in the country since Buhari took over in 2015, he continues to have significant support in Nigeria, especial­ly in the Northern part of the country. Since January of this year, over 1351 people have died in clashes between Fu­lani herdsmen and farmers, as well as in the perennial Boko Haram insurgency that has devastated much of the North East. In February, 110 school­girls were kidnapped in Dap­chi, Yobe State. They remained in Boko Haram custody until last month when a negotia­tion led to the release of all but one of the girls. Five of the girls died during their ordeal. Meanwhile, over 100 of the 276 Chibok schoolgirls kidnapped in 2014 have not been rescued or accounted for.

By being selective in his prosecution of corruption in Nigeria and by tilting his po­litical appointments in fa­vor of his own people in the North, Mr. Buhari squandered the goodwill he had when he was elected. Those who over­looked his flaws with the hope that he would effectively tack­le corruption and restructure the unbalanced federation have been left with the short end of the stick. In spite of a performance that has been adjudged to be below expec­tation, the opposition parties have not capitalized on Mr. Buhari’s failures to put up a formidable front that could in­spire confidence in the Nigeri­an electorates. Partly due to a daily revelation of the massive lootings that occurred prior to Buhari’s election as president, some Nigerian electorates are worried that a return of the opposition may mean a return to the era of unlimited looting. While there are younger Nige­rians aspiring for elective offic­es, including the presidency, the tools of political ascendan­cy still remain in the hands of the political establishment.

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In 2015 election, Buhari led Nigeria’s opposition party to defeat the ruling party. It was the first in the history of the country. Today, Nigeria is at an­other crossroad. And this one is a lot tougher. It is at the heart of most of Africa’s political prob­lems. It poses the question of whether an old and ailing pres­ident would relinquish power as Nelson Mandela did in South Africa and let a younger lead­er to emerge to lead a country where 70% of its citizens are un­der 30, or stay put and exacer­bate the problems that have al­ready polarized his country to a level never seen since the 1967-1970 Nigeria-Biafra civil war.

With the cult-like following that Mr. Buhari still enjoys in most parts of Northern Nige­ria, political observers are sad­ly coming to the conclusion that if Buhari wins Nigeria’s 2019 presidential election, Nigeria is finished. And if he loses, Nigeria is finished. The only thing that will save Nige­ria is if Buhari stands down.

Rudolf Ogoo Okonkwo’s latest book is, This American Life Sef.

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